Is primary trabeculectomy cost-effective for patients with advanced primary open angle glaucoma? Results from the Treatment of Advanced Glaucoma Study economic model.

BACKGROUND/AIMS: Advanced primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) is a lifelong condition. The aim of this study is to compare medical treatment against trabeculectomy for patients presenting with advanced POAG using an economic evaluation decision model. METHODS: A Markov model was used to compare the two treatments, medical treatment versus trabeculectomy for the management of advanced POAG, in terms of costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). The uncertainty surrounding the model findings was assessed using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and deterministic analysis. Data for the model came from Treatment of Advanced Glaucoma Study supplemented with data from the literature. The main outcomes of the model presented in terms of Incremental costs and QALYs based on responses to the EQ-5D-5L, Health Utilities Index-3 and a Glaucoma Utility Index. RESULTS: In the base-case analysis (lifetime horizon and EQ-5D-5L measure), participants receiving trabeculectomy had on average, an additional cost of £2687, an additional 0.28 QALYs and an incremental cost per QALY of £9679 compared with medical treatment. There was a 73% likelihood of trabeculectomy being considered cost-effective when society was willing to pay £20 000 for a QALY. Over shorter time horizons, the incremental cost per QALY gained from trabeculectomy compared with medical treatment was higher (47 663) for a 2-year time horizon. Our results are robust to changes in the key assumptions and input parameters values. CONCLUSION: In patients presenting with advanced POAG, trabeculectomy has a higher probability of being cost-effective over a patient's lifetime compared with medical treatment.

Evaluating Primary Treatment for People with Advanced Glaucoma: Five-Year Results of the Treatment of Advanced Glaucoma Study.

PURPOSE: To determine whether primary trabeculectomy or medical treatment produces better outcomes in terms of quality of life (QoL), clinical effectiveness, and safety in patients with advanced glaucoma. DESIGN: Multicenter randomized controlled trial. PARTICIPANTS: Between June 3, 2014, and May 31, 2017, 453 adults with newly diagnosed advanced open-angle glaucoma in at least 1 eye (Hodapp classification) were recruited from 27 secondary care glaucoma departments in the United Kingdom. Two hundred twenty-seven were allocated to trabeculectomy, and 226 were allocated medical management. METHODS: Participants were randomized on a 1:1 basis to have either mitomycin C-augmented trabeculectomy or escalating medical management with intraocular pressure (IOP)-reducing drops as the primary intervention and were followed up for 5 years. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The primary outcome was vision-specific QoL measured with the 25-item Visual Function Questionnaire (VFQ-25) at 5 years. Secondary outcomes were general health status, glaucoma-related QoL, clinical effectiveness (IOP, visual field, and visual acuity), and safety. RESULTS: At 5 years, the mean ± standard deviation VFQ-25 scores in the trabeculectomy and medication arms were 83.3 ± 15.5 and 81.3 ± 17.5, respectively, and the mean difference was 1.01 (95% confidence interval [CI], -1.99 to 4.00; P = 0.51). The mean IOPs were 12.07 ± 5.18 mmHg and 14.76 ± 4.14 mmHg, respectively, and the mean difference was -2.56 (95% CI, -3.80 to -1.32; P < 0.001). Glaucoma severity measured with visual field mean deviation were -14.30 ± 7.14 dB and -16.74 ± 6.78 dB, respectively, with a mean difference of 1.87 (95% CI, 0.87-2.87 dB; P < 0.001). Safety events occurred in 115 (52.2%) of patients in the trabeculectomy arm and 124 (57.9%) of patients in the medication arm (relative risk, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.72-1.19; P = 0.54). Serious adverse events were rare. CONCLUSIONS: At 5 years, the Treatment of Advanced Glaucoma Study demonstrated that primary trabeculectomy surgery is more effective in lowering IOP and preventing disease progression than primary medical treatment in patients with advanced disease and has a similar safety profile. FINANCIAL DISCLOSURE(S): Proprietary or commercial disclosure may be found in the Footnotes and Disclosures at the end of this article.

Evaluating high-cost technologies - no need to throw the baby out with the bathwater.

INTRODUCTION: Evidence generation for the health technology assessment (HTA) of a new technology is a long and expensive process with no guarantees that the health technology will be adopted and implemented into a health-care system. This would suggest that there is a greater risk of failure for a company developing a high-cost technology and therefore incentives (such as increasing the funding available for research or additional market exclusivity) may be needed to encourage development of such technologies as has been seen with many high-cost orphan drugs. AREAS COVERED: This paper discusses some of the key issues relating to the evaluation of high-cost technologies through the use of existing HTA processes and what the challenges will be going forward. EXPERT OPINION: We propose that while the current HTA process is robust, its evolution into accommodating the incorporation of real-world data and evidence alongside a life-cycle HTA approach should better enable developers to produce the evidence required on effectiveness and cost-effectiveness. This should lead to reduced decision uncertainty for HTA agencies to make adoption decisions in a more timely and efficient manner. Furthermore, budget impact analysis remains important in understanding the actual financial impact on health-care systems and budgets outside of the cost-effectiveness framework used to aid decision-making.

Predictive accuracy of risk prediction models for recurrence, metastasis and survival for early-stage cutaneous melanoma: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic models for melanoma survival, recurrence and metastasis among American Joint Committee on Cancer stage I and II patients postsurgery; and evaluate model performance, including overall survival (OS) prediction. DESIGN: Systematic review and narrative synthesis. DATA SOURCES: Searched MEDLINE, Embase, CINAHL, Cochrane Library, Science Citation Index and grey literature sources including cancer and guideline websites from 2000 to September 2021. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA: Included studies on risk prediction models for stage I and II melanoma in adults ≥18 years. Outcomes included OS, recurrence, metastases and model performance. No language or country of publication restrictions were applied. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Two pairs of reviewers independently screened studies, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias using the CHecklist for critical Appraisal and data extraction for systematic Reviews of prediction Modelling Studies checklist and the Prediction study Risk of Bias Assessment Tool. Heterogeneous predictors prevented statistical synthesis. RESULTS: From 28 967 records, 15 studies reporting 20 models were included; 8 (stage I), 2 (stage II), 7 (stages I-II) and 7 (stages not reported), but were clearly applicable to early stages. Clinicopathological predictors per model ranged from 3-10. The most common were: ulceration, Breslow thickness/depth, sociodemographic status and site. Where reported, discriminatory values were ≥0.7. Calibration measures showed good matches between predicted and observed rates. None of the studies assessed clinical usefulness of the models. Risk of bias was high in eight models, unclear in nine and low in three. Seven models were internally and externally cross-validated, six models were externally validated and eight models were internally validated. CONCLUSIONS: All models are effective in their predictive performance, however the low quality of the evidence raises concern as to whether current follow-up recommendations following surgical treatment is adequate. Future models should incorporate biomarkers for improved accuracy. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42018086784.

Study of How Adiposity in Pregnancy has an Effect on outcomeS (SHAPES): protocol for a prospective cohort study.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal obesity increases the risk of multiple maternal and infant pregnancy complications, such as gestational diabetes and pre-eclampsia. Current UK guidelines use body mass index (BMI) to identify which women require additional care due to increased risk of complications. However, BMI may not accurately predict which women will develop complications during pregnancy as it does not determine amount and distribution of adipose tissue. Some adiposity measures (eg, waist circumference, ultrasound measures of abdominal visceral fat) can better identify where body fat is stored, which may be useful in predicting those women who need additional care. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: This prospective cohort study (SHAPES, Study of How Adiposity in Pregnancy has an Effect on outcomeS) aims to evaluate the prognostic performance of adiposity measures (either alone or in combination with other adiposity, sociodemographic or clinical measures) to estimate risk of adverse pregnancy outcomes. Pregnant women (n=1400) will be recruited at their first trimester ultrasound scan (11+2-14+1 weeks') at Newcastle upon Tyne National Health Service Foundation Trust, UK. Early pregnancy adiposity measures and clinical and sociodemographic data will be collected. Routine data on maternal and infant pregnancy outcomes will be collected from routine hospital records. Regression methods will be used to compare the different adiposity measures with BMI in terms of their ability to predict pregnancy complications. If no individual measure performs better than BMI, multivariable models will be developed and evaluated to identify the most parsimonious model. The apparent performance of the developed model will be summarised using calibration, discrimination and internal validation analyses. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethical favourable opinion has been obtained from the North East: Newcastle & North Tyneside 1 Research Ethics Committee (REC reference: 22/NE/0035). All participants provide informed consent to take part in SHAPES. Planned dissemination includes peer-reviewed publications and additional dissemination appropriate to target audiences, including policy briefs for policymakers, media/social-media coverage for public and conferences for research TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: ISRCTN82185177.

GRADE guidance 23: considering cost-effectiveness evidence in moving from evidence to health-related recommendations.

BACKGROUND: This is the 23rd in a series of articles describing the Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach to grading the certainty of evidence and strength of recommendations for systematic reviews, health technology assessments, and clinical guideline development. OBJECTIVES: We outline how resource utilization and cost-effectiveness analyses are integrated into health-related recommendations, using the GRADE Evidence to Decision (EtD) frameworks. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: Through iterative discussions and refinement, in-person, and online meetings, and through e-mail communication, we developed draft guidance to incorporate economic evidence in the formulation of health-related recommendations. We developed scenarios to operationalize the guidance. We presented a summary of the results to members of the GRADE Economic Evaluation Project Group. RESULTS: We describe how to estimate the cost of preventing (or achieving) an event to inform assessments of cost-effectiveness of alternative treatments, when there are no published economic evaluations. Evidence profiles and Summary of Findings tables based on systematic reviews of cost-effectiveness analyses can be created to provide top-level summaries of results and quality of multiple published economic evaluations. We also describe how this information could be integrated in GRADE's EtD frameworks to inform health-related recommendations. Three scenarios representing various levels of available cost-effectiveness evidence were used to illustrate the integration process. CONCLUSION: This GRADE guidance provides practical information for presenting cost-effectiveness data and its integration in the development of health-related recommendations, using the EtD frameworks.

Photodynamic Diagnosis-guided Transurethral Resection of Bladder Tumour in Participants with a First Suspected Diagnosis of Intermediate- or High-risk Non-muscle-invasive Bladder Cancer: Cost-effectiveness Analysis Alongside a Randomised Controlled Trial.

Background: Recurrence of non-muscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) is common after transurethral resection of bladder tumour (TURBT). Photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) may reduce recurrence. PDD uses a photosensitiser in the bladder that causes the tumour to fluoresce to guide resection. PDD provides better diagnostic accuracy and allows more complete tumour resection. Objective: To estimate the economic efficiency of PDD-guided TURBT (PDD-TURBT) in comparison to white light-guided TURNT (WL-TURBT) in individuals with a suspected first diagnosis of NMIBC at intermediate or high risk of recurrence on the basis of routine visual assessment before being scheduled for TURBT. Design setting and participants: This is a health economic evaluation alongside a pragmatic, open-label, parallel-group randomised trial from a societal perspective. A total of 493 participants (aged ≥16 yr) were randomly allocated to PDD-TURBT (n = 244) or WL-TURBT (n = 249) in 22 UK National Health Service hospitals. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: Cost effectiveness ratios were based on the use of health care resources associated with PDD-TURBT and WL-TURBT and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) gained within the trial. Uncertainties in key parameters were assessed using sensitivity analyses. Results and limitations: On the basis of the use of resources driven by the trial protocol, the incremental cost effectiveness of PDD-TURBT in comparison to WL-TURBT was not cost saving. At 3 yr, the total cost was £12 881 for PDD-TURBT and £12 005 for WL-TURBT. QALYs at three years were 2.087 for PDD-TURBT and 2.094 for WL-TURBT. The probability that PDD-TURBT is cost effective was never >30% above the range of societal cost-effectiveness thresholds. Conclusions: There was no evidence of a difference in either costs or QALYs over 3-yr follow-up between PDD-TURBT and WL-TURBT in individuals with suspected intermediate- or high-risk NMIBC. PDD-TURBT is not supported for the management of primary intermediate- or high-risk NMIBC. Patient summary: We assessed overall costs for two approaches for removal of bladder tumours in noninvasive cancer and measured quality-adjusted life years gained for each. We found that use of a photosensitiser in the bladder was not more cost effective than use of white light only during tumour removal.

Population norms for the EQ-5D-3L and EQ-5D-5L in Romania.

BACKGROUND: The majority of patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) don't have population norms in Romania. This is the case with the EQ-5D as well. Therefore, we aimed to estimate population norms for the Romanian versions of the EQ-5D-5L, EQ-5D-3L, their indexes, and the EQ-VAS. METHODS: A cross-sectional survey was conducted in all regions of Romania from November 2018 to November 2019. A three-stage probability sampling procedure stratified by region and settlement size was used to select a representative sample. Interviews were computer-assisted and conducted in respondents' homes by trained interviewers. Health status was assessed with the EQ-5D-5L, the EQ-5D-3L and the EQ VAS. Descriptive statistics were used to estimate population norms by age groups and sex for the EQ-5D-5L, the EQ-5D-3L, their indexes and the EQ VAS. Population norms were weighted using survey weights. Indexes for the EQ-5D questionnaires were estimated using the recently developed Romanian value sets. RESULTS: Data from 1,649 interviews was analysed in the present study. Survey weights were used so that sex and place of residence ratios for the weighted sample matched the Romanian general population distribution. Participants' mean age was 47.4 years (SE = 1.157) and 50.3% of them reported being in good health. The dimension for which people reported the highest number of problems for both questionnaires was the pain/discomfort dimension. Men aged 35 plus reported fewer problems with pain/discomfort than women for both the EQ-5D-5L and EQ-5D-3L. Health decreased with age as shown by the decrease from age group 18-24 to age group 75 plus in the indexes of both questionnaires: from 0.977 (SE = 0.005) to 0.765 (SE = 0.017) for EQ-5D-5L and from 0.981 (SE = 0.005) to 0.784 (SE = 0.019) for EQ-5D-3L. There was 29.9 points drop in the EQ VAS score between the youngest and oldest group. CONCLUSIONS: Population norms for the Romanian versions of the EQ-5D-5L, EQ-5D-3L, their indexes, and the EQ VAS are now available. These can now be used as reference values by healthcare professionals, researchers and decision-makers leading to a further development of health-related quality of life research in Romania.

Incorporating economic methods into Cochrane systematic reviews: case studies in brain tumour research.

BACKGROUND: Cochrane systematic reviews have established methods for identifying and critically appraising empirical evidence in health. In addition to evidence regarding the clinical effectiveness of interventions, the resource implications of such interventions can have a huge impact on a decision maker's ability to adopt and implement them. In this paper, we present examples of the three approaches to include economic evidence in Cochrane reviews. METHODS: The Cochrane Handbook presents three different methods of integrating economic evidence into reviews: the Brief Economic Commentary (BEC), the Integrated Full Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations (IFSREE) and using an Economic Decision Model. Using the examples from three different systematic reviews in the field of brain cancer, we utilised each method to address three different research questions. A BEC was utilised in a review that evaluates the long-term side effects of radiotherapy (with or without chemotherapy). An IFSREE was utilised in a review comparing different treatment strategies for newly diagnosed glioblastoma in the elderly. Finally, an economic model was included in a review assessing diagnostic test accuracy for tests of codeletion of chromosomal arms in people with glioma. RESULTS: The BEC mirrored the results of the main review and found a paucity of quality evidence with regard to the side effects of radiotherapy in those with glioma. The IFSREE identified a single economic evaluation regarding glioblastoma in the elderly, but this study had a number of methodological issues. The economic model identified a number of potentially cost-effective strategies for tests for codeletion of chromosomal arms 1p and 19q in people with glioma. CONCLUSIONS: There are strengths and limitations of each approach for integrating economic evidence in Cochrane systematic reviews. The type of research question, resources available and study timeline should be considered when choosing which approach to use when integrating economic evidence.

Minithoracotomy vs Conventional Sternotomy for Mitral Valve Repair: A Randomized Clinical Trial.

Importance: The safety and effectiveness of mitral valve repair via thoracoscopically-guided minithoracotomy (minithoracotomy) compared with median sternotomy (sternotomy) in patients with degenerative mitral valve regurgitation is uncertain. Objective: To compare the safety and effectiveness of minithoracotomy vs sternotomy mitral valve repair in a randomized trial. Design, Setting, and Participants: A pragmatic, multicenter, superiority, randomized clinical trial in 10 tertiary care institutions in the UK. Participants were adults with degenerative mitral regurgitation undergoing mitral valve repair surgery. Interventions: Participants were randomized 1:1 with concealed allocation to receive either minithoracotomy or sternotomy mitral valve repair performed by an expert surgeon. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was physical functioning and associated return to usual activities measured by change from baseline in the 36-Item Short Form Health Survey (SF-36) version 2 physical functioning scale 12 weeks after the index surgery, assessed by an independent researcher masked to the intervention. Secondary outcomes included recurrent mitral regurgitation grade, physical activity, and quality of life. The prespecified safety outcomes included death, repeat mitral valve surgery, or heart failure hospitalization up to 1 year. Results: Between November 2016 and January 2021, 330 participants were randomized (mean age, 67 years, 100 female [30%]); 166 were allocated to minithoracotomy and 164 allocated to sternotomy, of whom 309 underwent surgery and 294 reported the primary outcome. At 12 weeks, the mean between-group difference in the change in the SF-36 physical function T score was 0.68 (95% CI, -1.89 to 3.26). Valve repair rates (≈ 96%) were similar in both groups. Echocardiography demonstrated mitral regurgitation severity as none or mild for 92% of participants at 1 year with no difference between groups. The composite safety outcome occurred in 5.4% (9 of 166) of patients undergoing minithoracotomy and 6.1% (10 of 163) undergoing sternotomy at 1 year. Conclusions and relevance: Minithoracotomy is not superior to sternotomy in recovery of physical function at 12 weeks. Minithoracotomy achieves high rates and quality of valve repair and has similar safety outcomes at 1 year to sternotomy. The results provide evidence to inform shared decision-making and treatment guidelines. Trial Registration: isrctn.org Identifier: ISRCTN13930454.

Interventions for improving clinical outcomes and health-related quality-of-life for people living with skeletal dysplasias: an evidence gap map.

PURPOSE: Skeletal dysplasias are rare genetic disorders that are characterized by abnormal development of bone and cartilage. There are multiple medical and non-medical treatments for specific symptoms of skeletal dysplasias e.g. pain, as well as corrective surgical procedures to improve physical functioning. The aim of this paper was to develop an evidence-gap map of treatment options for skeletal dysplasias, and their impact on patient outcomes. METHODS: We conducted an evidence-gap map to identify the available evidence on the impact of treatment options on people with skeletal dysplasias on clinical outcomes (such as increase in height), and dimensions of health-related quality of life. A structured search strategy was applied to five databases. Two reviewers independently assessed articles for inclusion in two stages: titles and abstracts (stage 1), and full text of studies retained at stage 2. RESULTS: 58 studies fulfilled our inclusion criteria. The included studies covered 12 types of skeletal dysplasia that are non-lethal with severe limb deformities that could result in significant pain and numerous orthopaedic interventions. Most studies reported on the effect of surgical interventions (n = 40, 69%), followed by the effect of treatments on dimensions of health quality-of-life (n = 4, 6.8%) and psychosocial functioning (n = 8, 13.8%). CONCLUSION: Most studies reported on clinical outcomes from surgery for people living with Achondroplasia. Consequently, there are gaps in the literature on the full range of treatment options (including no active treatment), outcomes and the lived experience of people living with other skeletal dysplasias. More research is warranted to examine the impact of treatments on health-related quality-of-life of people living with skeletal dysplasias, including their relatives to enable them to make preference- and valued based decisions about treatment.

Conservative management versus tonsillectomy in adults with recurrent acute tonsillitis in the UK (NATTINA): a multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Tonsillectomy is regularly performed in adults with acute tonsillitis, but with scarce evidence. A reduction in tonsillectomies has coincided with an increase in acute adult hospitalisation for tonsillitis complications. We aimed to assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of conservative management versus tonsillectomy in patients with recurrent acute tonsillitis. METHODS: This pragmatic multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial was conducted in 27 hospitals in the UK. Participants were adults aged 16 years or older who were newly referred to secondary care otolaryngology clinics with recurrent acute tonsillitis. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive tonsillectomy or conservative management using random permuted blocks of variable length. Stratification by recruiting centre and baseline symptom severity was assessed using the Tonsil Outcome Inventory-14 score (categories defined as mild 0-35, moderate 36-48, or severe 49-70). Participants in the tonsillectomy group received elective surgery to dissect the palatine tonsils within 8 weeks after random assignment and those in the conservative management group received standard non-surgical care during 24 months. The primary outcome was the number of sore throat days collected during 24 months after random assignment, reported once per week with a text message. The primary analysis was done in the intention-to-treat (ITT) population. This study is registered with the ISRCTN registry, 55284102. FINDINGS: Between May 11, 2015, and April 30, 2018, 4165 participants with recurrent acute tonsillitis were assessed for eligibility and 3712 were excluded. 453 eligible participants were randomly assigned (233 in the immediate tonsillectomy group vs 220 in the conservative management group). 429 (95%) patients were included in the primary ITT analysis (224 vs 205). The median age of participants was 23 years (IQR 19-30), with 355 (78%) females and 97 (21%) males. Most participants were White (407 [90%]). Participants in the immediate tonsillectomy group had fewer days of sore throat during 24 months than those in the conservative management group (median 23 days [IQR 11-46] vs 30 days [14-65]). After adjustment for site and baseline severity, the incident rate ratio of total sore throat days in the immediate tonsillectomy group (n=224) compared with the conservative management group (n=205) was 0·53 (95% CI 0·43 to 0·65; <0·0001). 191 adverse events in 90 (39%) of 231 participants were deemed related to tonsillectomy. The most common adverse event was bleeding (54 events in 44 [19%] participants). No deaths occurred during the study. INTERPRETATION: Compared with conservative management, immediate tonsillectomy is clinically effective and cost-effective in adults with recurrent acute tonsillitis. FUNDING: National Institute for Health Research.

Guidance on the use of complex systems models for economic evaluations of public health interventions.

To help health economic modelers respond to demands for greater use of complex systems models in public health. To propose identifiable features of such models and support researchers to plan public health modeling projects using these models. A working group of experts in complex systems modeling and economic evaluation was brought together to develop and jointly write guidance for the use of complex systems models for health economic analysis. The content of workshops was informed by a scoping review. A public health complex systems model for economic evaluation is defined as a quantitative, dynamic, non-linear model that incorporates feedback and interactions among model elements, in order to capture emergent outcomes and estimate health, economic and potentially other consequences to inform public policies. The guidance covers: when complex systems modeling is needed; principles for designing a complex systems model; and how to choose an appropriate modeling technique. This paper provides a definition to identify and characterize complex systems models for economic evaluations and proposes guidance on key aspects of the process for health economics analysis. This document will support the development of complex systems models, with impact on public health systems policy and decision making.

Investigating changes in mental health services utilisation in England and their impact on health outcomes and wellbeing during the COVID-19 pandemic: Protocol for a health data-linkage study.

INTRODUCTION: Linking routinely collected health care system data records for the same individual across different services and over time has enormous potential for the NHS and its patients. The aims of this data linkage study are to quantify the changes to mental health services utilisation in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic and determine whether these changes were associated with health-related outcomes and wellbeing among people living in the most deprived communities in North East and North Cumbria, England. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: We will assemble a retrospective cohort of people having referred or self-referred to NHS-funded mental health services or Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services between 23rd March 2019 and 22nd March 2020 in the most deprived areas in England. We will link together data from retrospective routinely collected healthcare data including local general practitioner (GP) practice data, Hospital Episode Statistics admitted patient care outpatients, and A&E, Community Services Data Set, Mental Health Services Data Set, and Improving Access to Psychological Therapies Data Set. We will use these linked patient-level data to 1) describe the characteristics of the cohort prior to the lockdown; 2) investigate changes to mental health services utilised between multiple time periods of the COVID-19 lockdown including out of lockdown; 3) explore the relationship between these changes and health outcomes/wellbeing and factors that confound and mediate this relationship among this cohort. STRENGTHS AND LIMITATIONS OF THIS STUDY: This study comprises a deprived population-based cohort of people having referred or self-referred to NHS-funded secondary mental health services or Improving Access to Psychological Therapies (IAPT) services over an extended period of the lockdown in England (2019-2022).This study will utilise a new longitudinal data resource that will link together detailed data from a cohort of individual participants and retrospective administrative data relating to the use of primary, secondary, and community care services.The study period covers pre-lockdown, different lockdown and post-lockdown, and out of lockdown periods up to March 2022.Routinely collected administrative data contain limited contextual information and represent an underestimate of total health outcomes for these individuals.Routinely collected datasets can often been incomplete or contain missing data, which can make it difficult to accurately analyse the data and draw meaningful conclusions.Intervention and treatment for mental health conditions are not wholly captured across these data sources and may impact health outcomes.

Abemaciclib in Combination with Endocrine Therapy for Adjuvant Treatment of Hormone Receptor-Positive, HER2-Negative, Node-Positive Early Breast Cancer: An Evidence Review Group Perspective of a NICE Single Technology Appraisal.

The National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) invited the manufacturer (Eli Lilly) of abemaciclib (Verzenios) to submit evidence for the clinical and cost effectiveness of this drug in combination with endocrine therapy (ET) for the treatment of adult patients with hormone receptor (HR)-positive, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2)-negative, node-positive early breast cancer at high risk of recurrence, as part of the Institute's Single Technology Appraisal (STA) process. Kleijnen Systematic Reviews Ltd, in combination with Newcastle University, was commissioned to act as the independent Evidence Review Group (ERG). This paper summarised the Company Submission (CS), presents the ERG's critical review of the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS, highlights the key methodological considerations, and describes the development of the NICE guidance by the Appraisal Committee. The ERG produced a critical review of the evidence for the clinical and cost-effectiveness evidence in the CS and also independently searched for relevant evidence and modified the manufacturer decision analytic model to examine the impact of altering some of the key assumptions. A systematic literature review identified the MonarchE trial, an ongoing, open-label, randomised, double blind trial involving 5637 people comparing abemaciclib in combination with ET versus ET alone. The trial included two cohorts that used different inclusion criteria to define high risk of recurrence. The ERG considered Cohort 1 as an adequate representation of this population and the AC concluded that Cohort 1 was generalisable to National Health Service clinical practice. Trial results showed improvements in invasive disease-free survival for the abemaciclib arm, which was considered an appropriate surrogate outcome. The ERG believed that the modelling structure presented in the de novo economic model by the company was appropriate but highlighted several areas of uncertainty that had the potential to have a significant impact on the resulting incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). Areas of uncertainty included the extrapolation of long-term survival curves, the duration of treatment effect and treatment waning, and the proportion of patients who receive other CDK4/6 treatments for metastatic disease after receiving abemaciclib. ICER estimates were £9164 per quality-adjusted life-year gained for the company's base-case and £17,810 for the ERG's base-case. NICE recommended abemaciclib with ET as an option for the adjuvant treatment of HR-positive, HER2-negative, node-positive early breast cancer at high risk of recurrence.

Differential effects of diet and physical activity interventions in pregnancy to prevent gestational diabetes mellitus and reduce gestational weight gain by level of maternal adiposity: a protocol for an individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials.

INTRODUCTION: Women and their infants are at increased risk of complications if gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or excessive gestational weight gain (GWG) occurs in pregnancy. Weight management interventions in pregnancy, consisting of diet and physical activity components are targeted based on maternal body mass index (BMI). However, the relative effectiveness of interventions targeted based on alternative measures of adiposity to BMI is unclear. This individual patient data (IPD) meta-analysis aims to explore whether interventions are more effective at preventing GDM and reducing GWG in women according to their level of adiposity. METHODS: The International Weight Management in Pregnancy Collaborative Network has a living database of IPD from randomised trials of diet and/or physical activity interventions in pregnancy. This IPD meta-analysis will use IPD from trials identified from systematic literature searches up until March 2021, where maternal adiposity measures (eg, waist circumference) were collected prior to 20 weeks' gestation. A two-stage random effects IPD meta-analysis approach will be taken for each outcome (GDM and GWG) to understand the effect of early pregnancy adiposity measures on the effect of weight management interventions for GDM prevention and GWG reduction. Summary intervention effects with 95% CIs) will be derived along with treatment covariate interactions. Between-study heterogeneity will be summarised by I2 and tau2 statistics. Potential sources of bias will be evaluated, and the nature of any missing data will be explored and appropriate imputation methods adopted. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Ethics approval is not required. The study is registered on the International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews (CRD42021282036). Results will be submitted to peer-reviewed journals. PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER: CRD42021282036.

Interventions for treating obstetric fistula: An evidence gap map.

Obstetric fistula is prevalent in low- and middle-income countries, with between 50,000 and 100,000 new cases each year. The World Health Organization aims to eradicate it by 2030 but a clear idea of the extant evidence is unavailable. This evidence map compiled evidence on treatments for obstetric fistula to identify potential knowledge gaps. The protocol for this work was published on the Open Science Framework (DOI: 10.17605/OSF.IO/H7J35). A survey was developed, piloted and distributed online through organisations with an interest in obstetric fistula and snowballing. Results informed the evidence map framework. Searches were run on MEDLINE, Embase, CENTRAL, Global Index Medicus and ScanMedicine on 16 February 2022 to identify potentially eligible systematic reviews, randomised controlled trials, cohort studies and case-control studies. Forward and backward citation chaining was undertaken on relevant systematic reviews and included studies. Studies were screened, coded and assessed for risk of bias by a single reviewer, with a second checking a proportion. The evidence map results were compared to survey results. Thirty-nine people responded to the survey, half of which were clinicians. Of 9796 records identified, 37 reports of 28 studies were included in the evidence map. Many included studies were at some risk of bias; for observational studies, this was predominantly due to lack of controlling for confounders. Most studies (71%) assessed surgical interventions alone. Reporting on other intervention types was limited. Regarding outcome measures most important to survey respondents, 24 studies reported on cure/improvement in obstetric fistula and 20 on cure/improvement in urinary incontinence. Reporting on quality of life, faecal incontinence and sexual function was limited. There is currently little robust evidence to guide patients and practitioners on the most effective treatment option for obstetric fistula. Further research is required to address evidence gaps identified.

Adapted suicide safety plans to address self-harm, suicidal ideation, and suicide behaviours in autistic adults: protocol for a pilot randomised controlled trial.

BACKGROUND: Suicide prevention is a national priority for the UK government. Autistic people are at greater risk of experiencing self-harm and suicidal thoughts and behaviours than the general population. Safety plans are widely used in suicide prevention but have not yet been designed with and for autistic people. We developed the first safety plan specifically targeting suicidality in autistic adults: the Autism Adapted Safety Plan (AASP). It consists of a prioritised list of hierarchical steps that can be used prior to or during a crisis to mitigate risk of self-harm and suicidal behaviour. This is a pilot study that aims to assess the feasibility and acceptability of the AASPs and the research processes, including the response rates, potential barriers and reach of AASPs, methods of recruitment, what comprises usual care, and economic evaluation methods/tools. METHODS: This is an external pilot randomised controlled trial of a suicide prevention tool aimed at mitigating the risk of self-harm and suicidal behaviour in autistic adults: AASPs. Participants will be assessed at baseline and followed up 1 month and 6 months later. Assessments include questions about self-harm, suicidality, service use, and their experience of the AASP/taking part in the study. Autistic adults who have a clinical autism diagnosis and self-reported history of self-harm, suicidal thoughts, or suicidal behaviours within the last 6 months will be invited to take part in the study. Informed consent will be obtained. Participants will be recruited via community and third sector services (including community settings, autism charities, and mental health charities). They may also "self-refer" into the study through social media recruitment and word of mouth. Ninety participants will be randomised to either develop an AASP or receive their usual care in a 1:1 ratio. DISCUSSION: The present study will provide an evaluation of the suitability of the processes that would be undertaken in a larger definitive study, including recruitment, randomisation, methods, questionnaires, outcome measures, treatment, and follow-up assessments. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN70594445, Protocol v4: 8/2/22.

A framework for understanding, designing, developing and evaluating learning health systems.

Introduction: A Learning Health System is not a technical project. It is the evolution of an existing health system into one capable of learning from every patient. This paper outlines a recently published framework intended to aid the understanding, design, development and evaluation of Learning Health Systems. Methods: This work extended an existing repository of Learning Health System evidence, adding five more workshops. The total was subjected to thematic analysis, yielding a framework of elements important to understanding, designing, developing and evaluating Learning Health Systems. Purposeful literature reviews were conducted on each element. The findings were revised following a review by a group of international experts. Results: The resulting framework was arranged around four questions:What is our rationale for developing a Learning Health System?There can be many reasons for developing a Learning Health System. Understanding these will guide its development.What sources of complexity exist at the system and the intervention level?An understanding of complexity is central to making Learning Health Systems work. The non-adoption, abandonment, scale-up, spread and sustainability framework was utilised to help understand and manage it.What strategic approaches to change do we need to consider?A range of strategic issues must be addressed to enable successful change in a Learning Health System. These include, strategy, organisational structure, culture, workforce, implementation science, behaviour change, co-design and evaluation.What technical building blocks will we need?A Learning Health System must capture data from practice, turn it into knowledge and apply it back into practice. There are many methods to achieve this and a range of platforms to help. Discussion: The results form a framework for understanding, designing, developing and evaluating Learning Health Systems at any scale. Conclusion: It is hoped that this framework will evolve with use and feedback.